MorseCode

Random Writings on Just About Everything.

Monday, January 19, 2004

Iowa

Well, looks like the Zogby poll numbers from last week were showing real trends...

John Kerry's victory this evening certainly presents a startling turnaround for a campaign that just looked dead a few weeks ago. The last few weeks seem to have gone very well in Iowa for Kerry, and showed some of the strengths that hadn't been apparent before are coming to the forefront again.

From a marketing standpoint, Kerry did a good job in presenting himself over the last month as a likeable person and a solid human being. His past as a veteran certainly helped that, and his skill at "one-on-one" campaigning helped as well. Having footage of Kerry engaged in snowball fights and flying helicopters, along with is own personal narrative of military heroism helped voters considering electability as a factor.

Edwards performance may be even more remarkable than Kerry's, considering he didn't really have most of the "possible front runner" traits that Kerry had coming into the election season last year. While his numbers may have been padded slightly be second-choice support from Gephardt and Kucinich, Iowa places him right back into the thick of things. Many, including myself, have been puzzled why he hadn't caught on with more voters yet, given his strong campaign skills. It looks like he's finally turned the corner, and the race is more interesting for it.

Gephardt being out is a good thing, as it never really seemed like he had any kind of workable strategy even with a Win in Iowa.

Dean's performance is doubtless a disappointment, but he's still got the largest amount of funds to run everywhere, and will be difficult for any one candidate to challenge head on, though if New Hampshire falls apart it will be a very, very difficult race for Dean, regardless of money. Dean needs to play the next few weeks well or else he'll be the guy who energized the base but didn't get the nomination.