MorseCode

Random Writings on Just About Everything.

Monday, December 15, 2003

On Good News...

Well, as everyone's undoubtedly heard by now, we finally found Saddam Hussein. This is great news, as he was one of the world's most ruthless dictator's and deserves to be brought to justice. His capture, in many ways, may prove to be a pivot point in how the occupation of Iraq goes.

On one level, it hopefully provides an opportunity for the US to improve its image among many iraqis and get the ball rolling on getting something resembling a pluralistic republic there. The up side of Saddam's capture could be two-fold...it could take at least a little wind out of any resistance coming from Baathists, and it could ease the almost subconscious fears of some Iraqis that Saddam would somehow return to power.

The flipside of this, however, could make this a relatively low-impact issue in terms of our future with Iraq. Most observers seem to think that Saddam wasn't particularly key at this point to any operating resistance throughout Iraq to the US occupation, so his capture may yield minimal impact in the long term in quelling attacks on both our military and civillians in the region. Juan Cole brings up another not-so-good possibility that the lack of Hussein as an ever-present hidden threat may embolden some frustrated Iraqis (particularly Shiites) to actually air there disagreements with the US more freely (and quickly).

Even if the negative aspects of this are possible, the US needs to work quickly to try and capitalize on Hussein's capture and build some good will in Iraq and internationally. Trying to avoid the frequent (and idiotic) mistakes that have been prevalent since the planning stages of this mission. If Iraq slides into a theocratic or authoritarian regime, both Iraqis and Americans will be worse off, and less secure. Given our track record so far in Afghanistan, I can only hope we'll be improving...
Busy Month!

Wow. Sorry I didn't post for so long, to any of the 3 or 4 folks who read this blog. November/Early December was really strange, so I didn't have a lot of free time. Anyway, lots more posts from here on out...